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Thursday, 30 October 2014

VG: Mystery Flare Dragon odds

So today they revealed the new Gear Chronicle Stride Unit, (Time-space dragon) Mystery Flare Dragon that spots a "if hit, reveal the top 4 cards of the deck, if it has 4 different grades, cb4, take another turn, shuffle the deck" skill.


That's quite over the top with vg skills since if it ever does work, you will probably just outright win the game on the spot. Even if the game does not end, 3 more attacks plus another 2/3drive checks is gonna put the gear chronicle player too far ahead for a normal comeback to happen.

The question becomes: how likely is this game ending skill going to work?
Using a common distribution of 16-14-11-8, counting from the full deck size,
I get 4! x (16x14x11x8)/(49*48*47*46) = 0.093036
which is about 10% of the time.

Additionally, even if you have a exact same ratio of cards, a rough gauge of 4! x (1/4)^4 gets 0.09375 which is essentially pretty much about 10% of the time.

So it is highly unlikely that you would actually lose to that skill but as long as it does work, you've pretty much lost the game right there. It is somewhat like another shot at a double critical trigger.
Still, I hope I never get to be at its receiving end.

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