VG: Gear Chronicle is over powered

With the leaks from the latest monthly bushiroad, we see more of the new Gear Chronicle clan (and a bunch of other clans).
From there, we see that they have a whole frigging FAMILY OF SILENT TOMS.

G2: sb 2 to activate Silent Tom.
G3: gb1, cb1 to activate Silent Tom

G-unit: CB1, face up another copy of itself, Silent Tom, if there are 2 or more faced up cards in your G-zone +1 crit

I'm not sure if they have been testing their cards but the Silent Tom effect of (cannot be guarded by G0s) essentially means that if you intend to guard an attack, you're throwing at least 2 cards at any one point. This effect in Oracle Think Tank was unique to Silent Tom who had to be boosted by a 8k vanilla to be able to utilize properly and was later on brought back on the g4 Nouvelle Vague which was also difficult to guard against. 

And now they have a whole Silent Tom clan? Sign me up. I don't see how one could lose if you're attacking with triple Silent Tom when the opponent is at 5 damage. 3x perfect guard? BS much.

Legacy Cube sounds cool

I was looking at twitter and I saw that they did a new holiday cube based on Legacy.
The announcement can be found here.

It sounds interesting so I'm thinking of proxy-ing it up.

An easy search got me a link:
http://magic.bluebones.net/proxies/

Their card list was a pain in the butt as I copied the cards one by one for all 600 of them.
The proxy page doesn't have the new commander cards yet so I might wait for those to go on before I go ahead and print the entire list. (haha... I don't own too many cards from the list and I don't really want to get into worrying about any missing cards)

Accorder Paladin
Angel of Serenity
Archangel of Thune
Baneslayer Angel
Banisher Priest
Blade Splicer
Boros Elite
Brimaz, King of Oreskos
Champion of the Parish
Cloudgoat Ranger
Doomed Traveler
Eight-and-a-Half-Tails
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
Elite Vanguard
Emeria Angel
Eternal Dragon
Exalted Angel
Flickerwisp
Frontline Medic
Hallowed Spiritkeeper
Hero of Bladehold
Imposing Sovereign
Isamaru, Hound of Konda
Kami of Ancient Law
Karmic Guide
Kor Skyfisher
Linvala, Keeper of Silence
Mentor of the Meek
Mirran Crusader
Mother of Runes
Porcelain Legionnaire
Precinct Captain
Ranger of Eos
Restoration Angel
Reveillark
Savannah Lions
Seeker of the Way
Silverblade Paladin
Soldier of the Pantheon
Student of Warfare
Sublime Archangel
Sun Titan
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
Wall of Omens
Yosei, the Morning Star
Banishing Light
Crusade
Dictate of Heliod
Glorious Anthem
Honor of the Pure
Journey to Nowhere
Land Tax
Oblivion Ring
Parallax Wave
Seal of Cleansing
Spectral Procession
Angelic Destiny
Faith's Fetters
Spear of Heliod
Armageddon
Council's Judgment
Day of Judgment
Entreat the Angels
Gather the Townsfolk
Lingering Souls
Martial Coup
Oust
Ravages of War
Terminus
Wrath of God
Condemn
Disenchant
Mana Tithe
Momentary Blink
Path to Exile
Raise the Alarm
Swords to Plowshares
Unexpectedly Absent
Ajani Goldmane
Ajani Steadfast
Ajani, Caller of the Pride
Elspeth Tirel
Elspeth, Knight-Errant
Elspeth, Sun's Champion
Gideon Jura
Augur of Bolas
Chasm Skulker
Cloudfin Raptor
Consecrated Sphinx
Coralhelm Commander
Deceiver Exarch
Delver of Secrets
Dungeon Geists
Frost Titan
Glen Elendra Archmage
Keiga, the Tide Star
Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
Looter il-Kor
Man-o'-War
Master of Waves
Meloku the Clouded Mirror
Merfolk Looter
Mulldrifter
Old Man of the Sea
Pestermite
Phantasmal Image
Phyrexian Metamorph
Riftwing Cloudskate
Sakashima's Student
Sea Gate Oracle
Serendib Efreet
Snapcaster Mage
Sower of Temptation
Talrand, Sky Summoner
Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir
Thassa, God of the Sea
Tradewind Rider
Vendilion Clique
Venser, Shaper Savant
Wake Thrasher
Waterfront Bouncer
Future Sight
Legacy's Allure
Opposition
Control Magic
Treachery
Bident of Thassa
Ancestral Vision
Compulsive Research
Deep Analysis
Ponder
Preordain
Serum Visions
Show and Tell
Time Warp
Upheaval
Daze
Brainstorm
Condescend
Counterspell
Cryptic Command
Cyclonic Rift
Dig Through Time
Dismiss
Dissolve
Essence Scatter
Fact or Fiction
Forbid
Forbidden Alchemy
Force of Will
Force Spike
Gifts Ungiven
Impulse
Into the Roil
Intuition
Mana Leak
Miscalculation
Mystical Teachings
Negate
Pact of Negation
Remand
Remove Soul
Repeal
Stroke of Genius
Think Twice
Jace Beleren
Jace, Architect of Thought
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage
Bloodghast
Bloodline Keeper
Bloodsoaked Champion
Bone Shredder
Brain Maggot
Carnophage
Dark Confidant
Desecration Demon
Diregraf Ghoul
Disciple of Bolas
Gatekeeper of Malakir
Geralf's Messenger
Gnarled Scarhide
Grave Titan
Graveborn Muse
Gravecrawler
Gray Merchant of Asphodel
Griselbrand
Herald of Torment
Hypnotic Specter
Knight of Infamy
Kokusho, the Evening Star
Lifebane Zombie
Massacre Wurm
Master of the Feast
Mesmeric Fiend
Nantuko Shade
Nekrataal
Nighthowler
Ophiomancer
Pain Seer
Phyrexian Obliterator
Sheoldred, Whispering One
Shriekmaw
Skinrender
Soul of Innistrad
Spiteful Returned
Stinkweed Imp
Vampire Hexmage
Vampire Lacerator
Vampire Nighthawk
Visara the Dreadful
Xathrid Necromancer
Bad Moon
Bitterblossom
Diabolic Servitude
Phyrexian Arena
Recurring Nightmare
Sarcomancy
Animate Dead
Underworld Connections
Whip of Erebos
Black Sun's Zenith
Chainer's Edict
Consuming Vapors
Corrupt
Damnation
Dread Return
Duress
Exhume
Hymn to Tourach
Inquisition of Kozilek
Living Death
Night's Whisper
Profane Command
Reanimate
Sinkhole
Thoughtseize
Toxic Deluge
Unburial Rites
Dark Ritual
Darkblast
Disfigure
Dismember
Doom Blade
Entomb
Go for the Throat
Hero's Downfall
Murderous Cut
Slaughter Pact
Tendrils of Corruption
Ultimate Price
Liliana of the Veil
Liliana Vess
Sorin Markov
Ashcloud Phoenix
Avalanche Riders
Beetleback Chief
Borderland Marauder
Chandra's Phoenix
Cunning Sparkmage
Dualcaster Mage
Firedrinker Satyr
Firefist Striker
Flametongue Kavu
Frenzied Goblin
Goblin Bushwhacker
Goblin Guide
Goblin Rabblemaster
Goblin Wardriver
Gore-House Chainwalker
Greater Gargadon
Grim Lavamancer
Guttersnipe
Hellrider
Hero of Oxid Ridge
Imperial Recruiter
Inferno Titan
Jackal Pup
Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
Kiln Fiend
Lightning Mauler
Mogg Fanatic
Mogg War Marshal
Prophetic Flamespeaker
Purphoros, God of the Forge
Scorched Rusalka
Siege-Gang Commander
Spikeshot Elder
Stormbreath Dragon
Stromkirk Noble
Thundermaw Hellkite
Young Pyromancer
Zealous Conscripts
Goblin Bombardment
Madcap Skills
Seal of Fire
Sneak Attack
Splinter Twin
Sulfuric Vortex
Hammer of Purphoros
Anger of the Gods
Arc Trail
Bonfire of the Damned
Chain Lightning
Crater's Claws
Devil's Play
Dragon Fodder
Firebolt
Flame Slash
Hordeling Outburst
Krenko's Command
Mizzium Mortars
Molten Rain
Pillar of Flame
Rift Bolt
Slagstorm
Tempt with Vengeance
Act of Aggression
Ancient Grudge
Brimstone Volley
Burst Lightning
Char
Fireblast
Incinerate
Lightning Bolt
Lightning Strike
Magma Jet
Searing Blaze
Searing Blood
Searing Spear
Skullcrack
Smash to Smithereens
Staggershock
Stoke the Flames
Through the Breach
Chandra, Pyromaster
Koth of the Hammer
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker
Acidic Slime
Arbor Elf
Avacyn's Pilgrim
Avenger of Zendikar
Birds of Paradise
Boon Satyr
Chameleon Colossus
Courser of Kruphix
Craterhoof Behemoth
Deranged Hermit
Elves of Deep Shadow
Elvish Mystic
Eternal Witness
Fauna Shaman
Fyndhorn Elves
Hornet Queen
Indrik Stomphowler
Joraga Treespeaker
Llanowar Elves
Lotus Cobra
Master of the Wild Hunt
Noble Hierarch
Obstinate Baloth
Oracle of Mul Daya
Overgrown Battlement
Phantom Centaur
Polukranos, World Eater
Primeval Titan
Reclamation Sage
Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary
Sakura-Tribe Elder
Satyr Wayfinder
Scavenging Ooze
Sylvan Caryatid
Tarmogoyf
Terastodon
Thragtusk
Thrun, the Last Troll
Troll Ascetic
Vengevine
Wall of Blossoms
Wall of Roots
Wild Mongrel
Wolfir Silverheart
Wood Elves
Woodfall Primus
Yavimaya Elder
Awakening Zone
Sylvan Library
Curse of Predation
Rancor
Birthing Pod
Call of the Herd
Commune with the Gods
Cultivate
Eureka
Explore
Farseek
Genesis Wave
Green Sun's Zenith
Harmonize
Kodama's Reach
Mulch
Natural Order
Plow Under
Primal Command
Rampant Growth
Regrowth
Search for Tomorrow
Song of the Dryads
Tooth and Nail
Tracker's Instincts
Beast Within
Chord of Calling
Krosan Grip
Mutagenic Growth
Naturalize
Setessan Tactics
Summoning Trap
Freyalise, Llanowar's Fury
Garruk Relentless
Garruk Wildspeaker
Garruk, Caller of Beasts
Garruk, Primal Hunter
Nissa, Worldwaker
Baleful Strix
Bloodbraid Elf
Boros Reckoner
Brago, King Eternal
Burning-Tree Emissary
Edric, Spymaster of Trest
Falkenrath Aristocrat
Figure of Destiny
Fleecemane Lion
Geist of Saint Traft
Ghor-Clan Rampager
Goblin Electromancer
Huntmaster of the Fells
Keranos, God of Storms
Kitchen Finks
Lotleth Troll
Murderous Redcap
Mystic Snake
Nightveil Specter
Olivia Voldaren
Prime Speaker Zegana
Progenitus
Prophetic Bolt
Psychatog
Qasali Pridemage
Rakdos Cackler
Shadowmage Infiltrator
Shardless Agent
Sin Collector
Tidehollow Sculler
Trygon Predator
Voice of Resurgence
Detention Sphere
Mirari's Wake
Dreadbore
Gerrard's Verdict
Maelstrom Pulse
Supreme Verdict
Vindicate
Abrupt Decay
Boros Charm
Electrolyze
Far / Away
Fire / Ice
Grisly Salvage
Lightning Helix
Sphinx's Revelation
Terminate
Warleader's Helix
Ajani Vengeant
Ajani, Mentor of Heroes
Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
Domri Rade
Garruk, Apex Predator
Kiora, the Crashing Wave
Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker
Ral Zarek
Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
Sorin, Solemn Visitor
Venser, the Sojourner
Vraska the Unseen
Xenagos, the Reveler
Duplicant
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
Molten-Tail Masticore
Myr Battlesphere
Phyrexian Revoker
Precursor Golem
Solemn Simulacrum
Spellskite
Sundering Titan
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre
Wurmcoil Engine
Basilisk Collar
Batterskull
Bonesplitter
Grafted Wargear
Lightning Greaves
Loxodon Warhammer
Umezawa's Jitte
Vedalken Shackles
Aether Vial
Basalt Monolith
Chrome Mox
Coalition Relic
Cursed Scroll
Everflowing Chalice
Gilded Lotus
Grim Monolith
Hall of Triumph
Isochron Scepter
Mind Stone
Mox Diamond
Sensei's Divining Top
Shrine of Burning Rage
Sphere of the Suns
Tangle Wire
Thran Dynamo
Winter Orb
Worn Powerstone
Karn Liberated
Adarkar Wastes
Ancient Tomb
Arid Mesa
Badlands
Battlefield Forge
Bayou
Blood Crypt
Bloodstained Mire
Breeding Pool
Brushland
Caves of Koilos
City of Brass
Clifftop Retreat
Dragonskull Summit
Drowned Catacomb
Flooded Strand
Gaea's Cradle
Glacial Fortress
Godless Shrine
Hallowed Fountain
Hinterland Harbor
Isolated Chapel
Karplusan Forest
Llanowar Wastes
Mana Confluence
Marsh Flats
Mishra's Factory
Misty Rainforest
Mutavault
Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
Overgrown Tomb
Plateau
Polluted Delta
Reflecting Pool
Riptide Laboratory
Rishadan Port
Rootbound Crag
Sacred Foundry
Savannah
Scalding Tarn
Scrubland
Shivan Reef
Steam Vents
Stomping Ground
Sulfur Falls
Sulfurous Springs
Sunpetal Grove
Taiga
Tectonic Edge
Teetering Peaks
Temple Garden
Temple of Abandon
Temple of Deceit
Temple of Enlightenment
Temple of Epiphany
Temple of Malady
Temple of Malice
Temple of Mystery
Temple of Plenty
Temple of Silence
Temple of Triumph
Tropical Island
Tundra
Underground River
Underground Sea
Verdant Catacombs
Volcanic Island
Volrath's Stronghold
Wasteland
Watery Grave
Windbrisk Heights
Windswept Heath
Wooded Foothills
Woodland Cemetery
Yavimaya Coast

VG: Mystery Flare Dragon odds

So today they revealed the new Gear Chronicle Stride Unit, (Time-space dragon) Mystery Flare Dragon that spots a "if hit, reveal the top 4 cards of the deck, if it has 4 different grades, cb4, take another turn, shuffle the deck" skill.

That's quite over the top with vg skills since if it ever does work, you will probably just outright win the game on the spot. Even if the game does not end, 3 more attacks plus another 2/3drive checks is gonna put the gear chronicle player too far ahead for a normal comeback to happen.

The question becomes: how likely is this game ending skill going to work?

Using a common distribution of 16-14-11-8, counting from the full deck size,

I get 4! x (16x14x11x8)/(49*48*47*46) = 0.093036

which is about 10% of the time.

Additionally, even if you have a exact same ratio of cards, a rough gauge of 4! x (1/4)^4 gets 0.09375 which is essentially pretty much about 10% of the time.

So it is highly unlikely that you would actually lose to that skill but as long as it does work, you've pretty much lost the game right there. It is somewhat like another shot at a double critical trigger.

Still, I hope I never get to be at its receiving end.

Moving away from Doomsday?

So it's now the post Khans of Tarkir era, with Treasure Cruise pushing tons of delver decks into the top slots. The eternal weekend legacy's t8 was flooded with all variations of delvers.
It had 1 Maverick with Punishing fires (which eats delvers), 1 Tezz deck (with its maindeck leyline of the void) and 6 assorted delver decks.
It has been awhile since I have gone out to play Legacy and I brought my Doomsday fitted with 2x Dig through time and 1x Treasure Cruise in the SB. I lost againt BUG Delver (after I tried to go off against a Force of Will and getting stuck on one Swamp) and 2 Miracles decks.
With blue being more prominent, the storm side of the Doomsday deck is much weaker than it was. While my hands were rather bad all night, the problem was more fundamental than that.
I do not foresee that this overly complicated deck has the staying power to bash through the format as it is now.

The new challenge now is how to get through a format where people can play 4x Ancestral Recall.
I'm not sure where to start but I think I could try Sudden Shock, Pyroclasm etc.
I guess I should try to design a Delver killer, then move to finding the means to beating the other matchups. True-Name Nemesis overly complicates this effort but perhaps that would be the way to go... The Tezz deck does this very well with Chalices, Baleful Strix, Thopter-swords combo etc.
I don't think I have the core cards for that deck irl but maybe I can test it online to find a new direction to go towards. It has become a notch more difficult to deal with decks if they can simply refuel with Treasure Cruises.

Next Generation VG

The new season of Vanguard is here with its new Stride, G-assist and Generation break mechanics.

Stride is a very interesting mechanic because it is as good as having an early breakride with very minimal requirements.
Its main flaw is that it is very undercosted for what it does since it replaces itself with an extra drive check but has an additional 15k worth of attack stacked on, making it much harder to guard.

If they start slapping powerful abilities unto these, it will look pretty nasty because these are by far the most accessible cards in the game and would allow one to recreate the same games with a high degree of consistency.

The biggest winner is Commander Laurel who can turn a triple drive into a hexadrive and that is really not funny. 

G-Assist is really good since you can get out of a grade lock faster with minimal costs and generation break as a mechanic is interesting because it requires you to stride before you can use it and anything above gb1 means that you will probably see it work rather late into the game. Potentially more powerful

The flow of the game has vastly changed again and I think that those clans that are not vg-centric have the most to gain with stride since the G-unit is gonna at least be really fat and pressuring. I foresee the faster clans to be able to make full advantage of this.

Below is the new numbers to take note of:

So the math for a triple check is as follows (under the assumption that 1/3 of the deck is triggers):
The most common is 1 trigger which is about 44% of the time, as suggested by the one-in-three cards odds. This is followed by a no trigger at 30%.
Collectively, approximately 75% of the time, there will only be a maximum of 1 trigger from a triple drive check. This also means that 1 in 4 games where you take on a triple check, you will get hit by at least a double trigger and 1 in 25 games, you will get hit by a triple trigger.

Looking forward to getting a set of 8 G-units and the Dotx

Updating Doomsday

Last night, I managed to get a bunch of Treasure Cruises and bought 2 Dig through Time from a player opening boosters so I could finally update whatever I could play.

With the new set, I think that the format has changed significantly, mainly because of how Treasure Cruise is trying to be an Ancestral Recall and how it actually does end up being played for U.

We used to had to have very incremental advantages to get ahead of the opponent, playing cards like Brainstorm and Ponder to extend their reach to the fullest. However, now, those bad players who spam those spells early can just negate that minor advantage and break past with Treasure Cruise. I used to believe that just jam packing cantrips was inferior to playing actual threats (so I'd say 4 Brainstorm + 1 Ponder would be better than 4 Brainstorm + 3 Ponder in a deck like miracles that did not strive on finding any particular cards).

It brings us into the part of Vintage that I could never really handle, Ancestral Recall. In the era of Classic, I had really played for these very incremental advantages and I was doing quite well but I was on the backseat after Ancestral Recall became the core part of the game that would primarily dictate the flow of the game. I had mine countered and the opponent could use it twice. That did not pan out well.
In the same way, I have fears that Treasure Cruise might warp the various formats to have this tension. Treasure Cruise is like a reverse threshold in how it functions and dedicated decks can easily abuse it.
The modern Jeskai Ascendancy deck is a very powerful deck that just randomly wins really fast and is fueled by Treasure Cruise. I'm wondering if it can be played in Legacy/Vintage but I do not yet have any ideas on how to convert the decks over or how they should play out (instants cantrips to outdo removal?).

In any case, I tried updating the Doomsday deck by removing the Emrakul combo (since everyone has some form of guard against it, it has been the weakest link of the deck). I am trying 2x maindeck Dig through Time which seems quite insane with its 7 choose 2 reach and a Treasure Cruise in the SB as a wish target. It feels quite comfortable to play but I guess I have to do this with a live opponent to actually have proper feedback. I haven't played much since the release of the new set but I think the new additions are good to go.

Fine tuning za Overlord

I'm into my final tuning of the overlord deck.
It turned out quite fine actually with the limit break enabler doing sick things like turn 3 DOtR.
I upped the number of draw triggers after understanding the nature of the deck better, settling for a split of 6 crit 6 draw and not going into 4 crit 8 draws as the opponent inevitably has to take some damage from the front and not having crits to close the game can be very detrimental.
I am now settling my G3 spots with 2 DO (breakride), 3 DOtR, 3 DOtG.
The additional base the breakride gives DOtR does help quite abit as the draw trigger can be used to up its power to 26k. It also helps to save guarding power since it is less common for 18k RG columns nowadays,

I'm down to adjusting the last G1 and G2 spot, still undecided on which direction I should be headed for. I'm debating between Gojo and the limit break enabler for the g1 spot and perhaps the cb2 draw 1 on hit guy for the g2 slot. It's much better at building the game early on and I don't really use counterblast early.

I will be thinking about what more I can do while getting more open with the less common clans on the DS with the pre-bt16 pool.